$CENX — Macro — xSignalFlow

CENX OPEN FREE PICK Chart

Century Aluminum Company

Macro Industrials Mid cap 10/8/26 (7d ago) HOLD

Hold3-6 weeks

Entry$36.14Now$34.16PnL-5.48%

HOLD

79%

confidence

Angle 50% tariffs may be putting a domestic margin floor under CENX just as the washout starts to reverse.

CENX is framed as a tariff-protected aluminum rebound: 50% tariffs are argued to create an insulated domestic margin floor, while the stock trades at only 3x FY27E EBITDA [#1, #2]. A recent buyer argues current prices already reflect most of the downside unless the company misses across every metric, making the post-washout turn more than a chart-only bounce [#3].

Catalyst Repricing of tariff-protected domestic aluminum margins over the next 3-6 weeks is the re-rating window.

HOLD AI Status: CENX is deeply oversold at the lower Bollinger band with stochastics crossing up, while a strong downtrend and weak weekly momentum keep the tariff-margin rebound thesis on watch.

Bollinger %B near 0.04 and stochastics %K/%D in single digits with an upward cross align with lanes that favor a stabilization bounce from compressed, washed-out price action. The stock still trades well below the 20-day EMA, MACD remains below signal with histogram rolling over, and weekly MACD histogram is still negative with price under the 50-week SMA, so trend and higher-timeframe momentum have not yet confirmed a turn. The setup still fits the idea that 50% tariffs support domestic aluminum margins; near-term weakness looks more like timing and sentiment pressure than a clear break in that margin-floor story while volatility sits elevated.

Triangulation

Indicators as of Oct 15, 2026 12:15 PM PT

Trend	CAUTION	EMA20<SMA50<SMA200 · ADX 31.1 strong · -7.8% vs EMA20 · close<EMA20 · -DI > +DI
Momentum	HOLD	RSI 32.0 · RSIw 38.8 · hist -0.04 · MACD<signal
Stochastics	HOLD	%K/10 · %D/9 · cross up · oversold
Bollinger	HOLD	%B 0.12 · lower band · BW 18.9% · ATR 4.8%
Weekly	WATCHING	RSIw 35.6 · RSI<RSI-SMA · hist -1.68 · close<SMA50
Price action	CAUTION	20d 7% · 52w 17%
Volume	HOLD	1.15x avg · OBV ↓
Position	WATCHING	PnL -5.67% · peak +2.82% · dd -10.14% · 5d held

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$CENX Century Aluminum Company

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