Angle BASX demand and a $2B backlog make the 51% drawdown look more like a margin-reset washout than a broken growth story.
AAON’s stock sold off after a blowout Q2 because gross-margin guidance fell to 25-26%, but the growth engine remains intact: revenue rose about 101%, EPS beat, backlog approached $2B, and FY26 sales guidance moved to 55-60% growth [#3, #16, #31]. The setup is now less about chasing the print and more about mean reversion from a deep valuation reset, with shares cited near a decade-low forward P/S and roughly 51% below all-time highs despite data-center cooling demand through BASX [#7, #16, #30].
AI Status: AAON closed with a +12.55% gain after 21 sessions as the post-earnings rebound faded before the longer downtrend fully reversed.
The position realized +12.55% versus entry, peaking at +14.30% and never deepening much beyond a roughly 6.3% drawdown before giving back a small slice off the high. Our exit signal ended the trade while daily momentum remained firm—RSI near 64 and MACD histogram still rising—even as trend lanes stayed bearish with price only modestly below the 200-day average. Volume ran above its recent norm with OBV rising, but lower highs on the swing structure left the mean-reversion win intact rather than a full trend repair.
