Hold1-2 months
Entry$309.26Now$256.13PnL-17.18%
83%
confidence
Angle A $150M wireless deferral is being priced like demand destruction, while fiber and AI-infra work remain booked solid.
Dycom sold off after Q2 because guidance shifted about $150M of wireless program revenue into fiscal 2028, but the cited scope is unchanged rather than lost [#12, #21]. Underneath that reset, Q2 showed $2.006B of revenue, 16.7% organic growth, $5.29 adjusted EPS, and a $12.242B backlog up 53.2%, supporting the view that fiber, telecom, and AI data-center infrastructure demand remains intact [#14, #15]. Cross-sectional AI-infrastructure earnings strength adds a sector-beta tailwind rather than leaving the bounce dependent only on a chart reversal [#29].
HOLD AI Status: Dycom sits in a strong downtrend but oversold stochastics and Bollinger %B near the lower band suggest selling may be stretched versus intact fiber and backlog thesis.
Bollinger %B at 0.08 keeps price hugging the lower band with bandwidth near 13.6%, aligning with stochastics %K at 5.4 in oversold territory while MACD histogram remains positive and above signal despite rolling over. Weekly MACD histogram is deeply negative but rising, and RSI on both daily and weekly frames sits near 32, below the 20-day EMA by about 6.6% in a strong-ADX down move with bearish DMI. That mix fits pricing the wireless deferral as demand loss even as Q2 organic growth and backlog support the view that digital infrastructure work remains booked solid.
Triangulation
Indicators as of Oct 15, 2026 12:20 PM PT
| Trend | CAUTION | EMA20<SMA50<SMA200 · ADX 37.6 strong · -7.5% vs EMA20 · close<EMA20 · -DI > +DI |
| Momentum | WATCHING | RSI 31.7 · RSIw 33.2 · MACD rolling over · hist 1.27 · MACD>signal |
| Stochastics | HOLD | %K/5 · %D/13 · oversold |
| Bollinger | HOLD | %B 0.02 · lower band · BW 13.9% · ATR 4.8% |
| Weekly | WATCHING | RSIw 32.1 · RSI<RSI-SMA · hist -16.99 · hist rising · close<SMA50 |
| Price action | WATCHING | 20d 5% · 52w 1% · lower highs (3) |
| Volume | HOLD | 1.03x avg · OBV ↓ |
| Position | CAUTION | PnL -17.21% · peak +0.79% · dd -18.79% · 35d held |
