$AMRC — Alpha — xSignalFlow

AMRC OPEN FREE PICK Chart

Ameresco Inc.

Alpha Consumer Discretionary Small cap 8/7/26 (2mo ago) HOLD

Hold2-4 weeks

Entry$25.75Now$19.72PnL-23.42%

HOLD

74%

confidence

Angle Data-center power awards are reframing Ameresco as infrastructure growth, not just energy-efficiency contracting.

Ameresco’s reversal has a real fundamental hook: Q2 revenue beat expectations, new awards hit a record $1.8B, backlog rose 32% to $6.73B, and 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance was raised to $1.15-$1.35 [#14, #20]. The key rerate argument is that $1.2B of the new awards came from data-center power infrastructure, supporting a shift toward higher-value clean energy and grid infrastructure exposure [#5, #16]. Canaccord’s higher $62 target after Q2 adds external validation to the data-center backlog thesis [#17].

Catalyst Backlog conversion and further validation of behind-the-meter data-center power demand over the next several weeks.

HOLD AI Status: Ameresco is oversold at the lower Bollinger band with weak trend and momentum, while the data-center infrastructure thesis stays the frame to watch.

Stochastics show %K near 8 and %D near 18 with an oversold reading, and Bollinger %B at 0.06 sits at the lower band, which often marks stretched downside in choppy conditions (ADX 16.4). Price remains about 9.5% below the EMA20 in a down stack (EMA20 below SMA50 below SMA200), with MACD histogram negative and rolling over while MACD stays below signal. On the weekly chart, RSI near 39 sits below its SMA, close is below the 50-week SMA, and MACD histogram is still negative and not rising, so higher-timeframe repair is incomplete. That lag fits a market still pricing efficiency contracting more than record data-center power awards and backlog growth; lane favor on stochastics and Bollinger supports a watchful hold for backlog conversion rather than abandoning the infrastructure rerate story.

Triangulation

Indicators as of Oct 15, 2026 12:20 PM PT

Trend	CAUTION	EMA20<SMA50<SMA200 · ADX 16.4 chop · -8.1% vs EMA20 · close<EMA20
Momentum	WATCHING	RSI 36.9 · RSIw 41.5 · MACD rolling over · hist -0.12 · MACD<signal
Stochastics	HOLD	%K/8 · %D/18 · oversold
Bollinger	HOLD	%B 0.11 · lower band · BW 22.8% · ATR 5.9%
Weekly	WATCHING	RSIw 39.3 · RSI<RSI-SMA · hist -0.26 · close<SMA50
Price action	CAUTION	20d 5% · 52w 7%
Volume	HOLD	1.16x avg · OBV ↓
Position	CAUTION	PnL -23.42% · peak +11.48% · dd -25.97% · 49d held

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$AMRC Ameresco Inc.

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