$SUPN — Alpha — xSignalFlow

SUPN OPEN FREE PICK Chart

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alpha Health Care Mid cap 8/6/26 (24d ago) HOLD

Hold3-7 weeks

Entry$47.18Now$43.76PnL-7.24%

HOLD

74%

confidence

Angle A CNS roll-up with 52% growth-product revenue and $125M synergy potential gives the rebound more than chart fuel.

Supernus is rebounding with a stronger structural story: Q2 revenue rose 32% YoY to $219.1M, growth products climbed 52% to $175.7M, and FY26 revenue guidance was raised [#8, #19]. The Indivior combination adds scale, 11 commercial products, $2.2B pro forma revenue, $888M pro forma adjusted EBITDA, and $125M annual synergy potential, making the bounce look like an early re-rate of a larger CNS platform rather than a pure oversold snapback [#12, #13, #24].

Catalyst The re-rating window is the next several weeks as investors digest the raised FY26 outlook and model the combined CNS platform's synergy and EBITDA profile.

HOLD AI Status: SUPN sits near short-term lows with oversold stochastics and Bollinger %B at the lower band while the CNS platform thesis stays intact amid weak trend signals.

Stochastics show %K at 5.1 and %D at 12.3 in oversold territory, and Bollinger %B near 0.05 with bandwidth around 14% places price at the lower band where compressed volatility often sets up stabilization. Weekly MACD histogram remains negative and close sits below SMA50, so the intermediate trend still needs repair, but 20-day position at 16% and 52-week position at 10% suggest a washout zone rather than a broken setup. MACD is rolling over below signal and close remains about 5.7% under EMA20, yet the raised FY26 outlook and Indivior combination with synergy potential keep the CNS roll-up thesis relevant as the market digests the combined platform.

Triangulation

Indicators as of Aug 28, 2026 3:00 PM PT

Trend	CAUTION	EMA20<SMA50<SMA200 · ADX 20.1 weak · -5.3% vs EMA20 · close<EMA20 · -DI > +DI
Momentum	WATCHING	RSI 37.5 · RSIw 41.5 · MACD rolling over · hist -0.42 · MACD<signal
Stochastics	HOLD	%K/5 · %D/12 · oversold
Bollinger	HOLD	%B 0.07 · lower band · BW 13.9% · ATR 3.9%
Weekly	WATCHING	RSIw 41.5 · RSI<RSI-SMA · hist -0.28 · close<SMA50
Price action	HOLD	20d 16% · 52w 10%
Volume	HOLD	0.45x avg · OBV ↓
Position	WATCHING	PnL -7.24% · peak +5.44% · dd -8.49% · 16d held

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$SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.

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