MacroTechnologySmall cap7/31/26 (15d ago)closed Aug 3, 2026
Held1 day
Entry$60.77Close$70.74PnL+16.41%
72%
confidence
Angle Record InP revenue and 45% gross margin show AI optics demand is turning a washout into a supply-cycle rebound.
AXT just posted a step-change quarter: revenue rose 164%-165% YoY to $47.6M, gross margin expanded to roughly 45%, and InP revenue hit a record $30.7M as AI data-center optics demand accelerated [#3, #22, #33]. The stronger case is not just the earnings beat, but upstream confirmation that InP substrates are supply-constrained as 800G/1.6T optical deployments ramp [#6, #8]. After a severe drawdown from the prior speculative peak, those operating receipts support the idea that the tactical bounce has real sector fuel behind it [#5, #30].
Catalyst Continuation of AI optical connectivity demand, InP supply tightness, and Q3 revenue guidance follow-through should drive the next re-rating window.
AI Status:AXTI closed after one session with a +16.41% gain as record InP revenue and AI optics demand validated the thesis before our exit signal.
The position realized +16.41% in a single trading day, peaking at +17.07% and finishing roughly half a percent below that high after weathering a -9.64% drawdown from entry. Volume ran 3.08x the 20-day average with rising OBV, while RSI held at 57.1 and MACD remained above signal amid a close above the upper Bollinger band at %B 1.09. Our exit signal closed the trade as the earnings-driven bounce ran its course.