Held14 days
Entry$62.31Close$75.47PnL+21.12%
66%
confidence
Angle DOGE’s shutdown removes a contract-cancellation overhang just as July defense-budget markers come into view.
BAH’s washout has a clearer why-now hook than a simple chart bounce: DOGE’s July 4 wind-down follows an 18-month period of federal contract cancellations, including 31 Treasury contracts tied to BAH in January [#1]. The bull case is that defense and intelligence demand remains the higher-quality federal-services sleeve, while July NDAA, DoD budget, SDA allocation, and BAH earnings markers can reset the narrative [#7, #10].
AI Status: BAH closed at +21.12% after an 18-day rebound from the federal-contract washout, capturing nearly the full peak before our exit signal.
The position realized +21.12% versus a +21.74% peak, with max drawdown held to -1.94% and only -0.51% off the high at exit. Daily RSI reached 69.1 with price extended above the upper Bollinger band (%B 1.44) as MACD stayed above signal, even as the longer-term stack remained down with EMA20 below SMA50 below SMA200. Our exit signal closed the trade as momentum stretched into the July defense-budget window.
Tweet citations
