Held24 days
Entry$281.99Close$317.86PnL+12.72%
62%
confidence
Angle Cheapest defense prime at ~15x 2027 EPS vs RTX 24x and GD 19x — with a $54B backlog the tape is pricing as fiction.
Down 21% over six months on almost entirely company-specific selling, HII now trades at ~15x 2027 earnings versus RTX at 24x and GD at 19x while sitting on a $54B backlog and a Moderate Buy consensus [#4, #5]. A fresh $418M five-year Navy IDIQ award for carrier and amphibious elevator maintenance through 2031 underscores that the backlog is real and recurring, not impaired [#1, #2, #11]. With the drawdown company-specific and the order book intact, the multiple gap to peers is the mispricing the reversal is starting to close.
AI Status: HII closed at +12.72% after the defense-prime discount thesis played out and our exit signal ended the pick at peak gains.
The trade realized +12.72% from a 281.99 entry over 24 days, matching its +12.72% maximum favorable excursion while weathering a -5.96% maximum drawdown. Daily momentum had turned constructive with RSI at 64.7 and a positive MACD histogram at 4.26, even as the broader trend remained classified DOWN with price still below the 200-day average. Our exit signal closed the position at the high rather than waiting for full peer-multiple catch-up.
